Iranian nuclear program at root of Georgian conflict

MOSCOW -- Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili appears to have grossly miscalculated his military's ability to seize the capital of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali, from Russian peace keepers, who have used the territorial dispute to prevent Georgia from integrating into the NATO partnership. Instead, U.S. and European efforts to contain Russian regional influence and control a distribution point for energy supplies that is independent of Russia's state-controlled companies appears to be dramatically set back.

The United States, Israel and Ukraine have been arming and training the Georgian military for several years and American military transports are flying its Iraq contingent back to Tbilisi to defend against a massive, well-planned Russian counter-attack to Georgia's provocations. In the early stages of the conflict, Georgian forces moved into Tskhinvali and slaughtered up to 1,500 civilians and scores of Russian peace keepers.

What is so astounding, besides the senseless slaughter of civilians on both sides of the conflict, is that this outcome was absolutely predictable. If so, why did Saakashvili attack the Russians so viciously, almost inviting a response? The President even admitted to news organizations in recent weeks that the Russians have been massing expeditionary forces on its border for months. He knew that Russians would respond to such provocations. Further, Russian military intelligence agents have pulled the bodies of non-theater combatants from burning Georgian tanks, suggesting that Western nations had a more active hand in the failed campaign. Again, if so, why would the Western alliance assist in a conflict that was guaranteed to fail.

The answer may lie in the Middle East. U.S. and Israeli delegations have met repeatedly with their Russian colleagues over the last several weeks, presumably so the Russians could persuade the Israelis to cease shipments of modern military equipment to Tbilisi. In return, the Russians are reportedly postponing the sale of sophisticated anti-aircraft systems to Iran.

Could the negotiations have gone one step further? What if Russia agreed to postpone weapons shipments to Iran until after January, when a new U.S. president will be sworn in. Without the S-300 systems, U.S. and Israeli fighter-bombers would have uncontested air superiority over Iran's nuclear program sites. Israel would solve the Iran problem and, if the attacks occurred before the elections in the U.S., the Republicans could conceivably have a shot at winning the White House for four more years. There are many "ifs" to this hypothesis but it deserves investigation.

Would the Administration, Israel and NATO sacrifice Georgia in order to accommodate an October Surprise? If regime change flips Iran to a pro-West country, Georgia's pipelines would be less strategically important for the West. Furthermore, the West may be inclined to accept Russian hegemony on its doorstep to lower the alarming tensions that have built up over Russian allegations that the West took advantage of a weakened Slavic nation as it recovered from decades of communism.

As usual, The Schadenfreude Post notes that innocent civilians are once again on the receiving end of international machinations and amoral bullets. It would be nice to see negotiations that lead to peace instead of grandmothers bleeding to death on street corners and the bloated tummies of children in relief camps. Peaceful conflict resolution... now that really would be a surprise.